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The Calm Before the Storm

Mark’s Market Update – 4/13/2023

Don’t miss out on the Calm Before the Storm

If you’re a parent – you know that your children will, literally, exasperate you. They make decisions that you just have to ask, “Did you even think about this before you did it?” They do and say things that just make you scratch your head.

And, then, they present a level of maturity that makes you ask a different question: “Where did THAT come from?”

So, apparently, my eldest has decided to start centering himself, meditating, and calming his mind. I caught this (he didn’t know I took it – so don’t tell him).

So, I have to ask myself: “Where did that come from?” (I don’t think it came from me or Tammy).

He does it at the end of the day – and is doing it before his golf tournaments.

I think a life AND business lesson can be learned here. There is a calm that can occur before the storm. However, there’s two types of Calm and Storm: External and Internal.

The External Storm is the craziness that can erupt around you which you may not have a lot of control over – the things in life that happen in the world around you. The business world. Family. Career. Politics. Usually, before craziness erupts – there’s a calm that exists when things aren’t crazy. You usually don’t see the calm until after the storm is in full swing.

There’s also the Internal Storm – which is how your mind reacts to the things that are external that start happening. I think this is where you have the best control – knowing that things may go a little crazy and preparing yourself for what that craziness can be. Sitting down and just…preparing. Mentally bolstering your mind and body for what you can see coming.

I think everyone needs to mentally prepare for the fact that rates are going to start to dip – and when they do, the seller market will rally – and we’ll be back to the storm that was 2020 and 2021. Buyers will have to be mentally prepared for that market (or better yet – just buy now and avoid the storm altogether and we’ll refinance later).

The Producer Price Index (PPI) just came out – and showed better-than-expected movement regarding inflation and lower inflation. The numbers were more favorable than expected, and the PPI tends to be a leading indicator that tracks in advance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation which will be coming out next.

With this in mind – I expect to see one more .25% rate hike by the Fed at their next meeting. Then, they will pause bumping up the rates – and look for the next CPI and PPI reports (with all eyes on the CPI report coming out on May 10th). I expect to see rates sliding in the next couple of months. BUT don’t wait. It’s easier to buy while the market is still a bit of a buyer’s market (mostly)…but that will change soon…be ready. We can always refinance a higher rate – but I can’t refinance a higher sales price.

The Storm is coming. Be Calm Before the Storm.

And buy the house now. I’ll help. 🙂